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The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette.
"On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."
Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.
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The author in this letter recommended the town council of Balmer Island to limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies during the summer season on the basis of the reduction rate attained by the neighboring island following the same legislation. This is possible that the enforcement of the law would result in limited number of accidents , however, the author failed to make a cogent case for this problem .
This is the depiction of "hasty generalization fallacy" wherein the author recommended the enforcement of the same law as the neighboring island Seaville Island (SI) to limit the number of accidents happening in Balmer Island (BI) without presenting the detailed scenario or conditions prevailing in the SI. The author claimed that Seaville's town council enforced certain limits on moped rentals, however, the author did not mention what was the rationale for SI to impose such laws and what were the other factors that ultimately led to reduction of accidents in SI. It is possible that the accidents in SI were exclusively because of the mopeds or it was because of the increase in the number of rental companies thus, leading to more rented mopeds on road. It is also possible that along with the limits on companies, the SI's town council also enforced laws for traffic control and sanctioned the laws for rule breaking defaulters. Thus the author need to specify full agenda for SI for the similar recommendation.
Secondly, the author recommended to limit the sale of mopeds on rent on the basis that the accident rate is mostly due to mopeds and pedestrians. Though , the mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation in the BI , it is possible that the increase in the number of accidents could be due to other means of transportation like heavy vehicles , cars etc. Thus , this refutes the assumption of increase in accidents due to mopeds use. The author should do a survey of the native people, visitors and rental companies too about what is the frequency of the accidents in the Island? Is it annual or during the summers only? Are the mopeds involved more in the accidents or other vehicles? Do the rental companies keep a track of their mopeds that what number of mopeds come damaged or lost or stolen ? It is possible that due to increase in population, may be the reckless drivers frequency also get increased or there might be the possibility of increase in careless pedestrians on the road leading to more number of accidents. Thus , in this case the town council should pass laws for reckless driving or may limit the use of vehicles on the road or in some crowded places where the chances of accidents are high.
Furthermore, the author professed that the population increases in summer months, but the author did not clarify if the population increase is because of the increase in the native population or due to visitors in the Island. It is possible that the visitors to the BI may be travelling in their own vehicles leading to more crowded roads and thus, more number of accidents. It is possible that the people visiting the island may not be aware of the island's landmarks and thus, leading to chaos followed by multiple accidents. For this aspect, it is recommended for the government to limit the number of vehicles coming from external areas rather support the use of native mopeds for the visitors or native vehicles with a guide to prevent the chaos. There is also a possibility that the Island itself is not capable of handling large population or visitors , thus, leading to more number of accidents. Therefore, the town council should plan on the extension or improvement of the roads to prevent the accidents along with the limitations on use of mopeds.
In summary, I would state that though author's assertions could be true but the author need to be more specified with the conditions prevailing in the SI , what caused the reduction in accident rate in SI. Additionally , the author should be clear about the causes of the accidents happening in BI thus, to recommend the best possible solution.
