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*The following appeared in a letter to the editor of the Balmer Island Gazette. "On Balmer Island, where mopeds serve as a popular form of transportation, the population increases to 100,000 during the summer months. To reduce the number of accidents involving mopeds and pedestrians, the town council of Balmer Island should limit the number of mopeds rented by the island's moped rental companies from 50 per day to 25 per day during the summer season. By limiting the number of rentals, the town council will attain the 50 percent annual reduction in moped accidents that was achieved last year on the neighboring island of Seaville, when Seaville's town council enforced similar limits on moped rentals."*

Write a response in which you discuss what questions would need to be answered in order to decide whether the recommendation is likely to have the predicted result. Be sure to explain how the answers to these questions would help to evaluate the recommendation.While it may be true that reducing the number of mopes rent on summer seems to reduce the number of accidents on Balmer Island, but this author's argument does not make a cogent case for the decreased number of accidents on Seaville and Balmer Island. It is easy to understand that this cities can have differences in number of population and fiscalization which differ the magnitude of the increasing of accidents.

The article states that the reduction in accidents on Balmer Island would be the same of the Seaville. Lets suppose that Seaville is a city larger than Balmer, people would people would ride mopes more frequently. Consequently, the number of acicidents would increase compared with a smaller city where mopes are not used in everyday life. Besides that, lets suppose the streets and roads of Seaville were more dangerous, with a lot of curves or streets with tiny sidewalks. We just do not know. Unless the two cities would have the same size and pattern of roads and streets we could say the comparison is valid and reliable.

Building up an implication that Balmer and Seaville Islands have the same size and well planned roads and streets, the author suggest that the redution in the number of accidents in Balmer would be the same observed in Seaville. According the argument the Balmer would have a reduction of 50% in the number of accidents by a decreasing in the number of mopes rent of 50%. But, if Seaville besides of decreasing the number of rents it also raised the fiscalization for mopes. As known, fining mopes which was faster than the speed allowed, and hiring more policemen to control the transit. Regardless of wheather the cities have made other measures to decreased accidents or not, the author does not efficiently show a connection between the expected decreased in the number of accidents in Balmer with the observed decreased in the number of accidents in Seaville.

To conclude, it is expected that the number of mope accidents decreased because of the reduction of the number of mopes circulating in the city. However, this author's argument is not likely significant persuade that the decrease in accidents would be the same as observed in Seaville