Writing Feedback / my GRE argument of "investment in company of heating oil" [5]

There are about 500 words in this article, and I really puzzled how to refine it as there is only 30 minutes provided to finish the argument.

Seeking for help~3Q <(^~^)>

In this letter the author points out that the region of northeastern U.S experienced 90 days' below-average temperatures last year. The author also cites the prediction made by climate forecasters at Waymarsh University that the weather pattern will last for several more years. The author reasons that the developments of new homes built in the region will lead to an increased demand for heating oil. On the basis of this line of reasoning the author recommends investment in Consolidated Industries. However, this argument contains several logical flaws, which render it unconvincing.

A threshold problem with the argument involves specific condition of the weather of the region. The author provides no evidence about how was the weather condition in the past. It is probable that cold winters in the past usually lasted longer than 90 days. And if it is the case, last winter might be a bit warmer than former ones, consequently, the utility of heating oil might decline to some extent rather than getting increased. What's more, we need to know the concrete temperature, if it is below, however, close to zero degree, then the evidence really makes no sense in verifying the increased demand for heating oil.

The argument also lends little evidence to prove the authority and accuracy of the prediction made by Waymarsh University that the weather pattern will continue for several more years. Lacking such evidence it is entirely possible that the prediction was based on inaccurate observation or their research time is insufficient enough to bring them about correct result.

Even if the prediction is substantiated, the author's claim that demand for heating oil will increase because of the new houses built in the region during the past year is unjustified. Perhaps there are few people preparing to move to the new houses due to the poor quality, or the expensive cost. Even if lots of people choose to live there, the author fails to provide us with convictive evidence that new residents there will exploit heating oil.

Finally, even if the author can support all of the foregoing assumptions, the author's recommendation that Consolidated Industries should be invested in is still unwarranted, in the respect that the author ignores other possible factors which will equally affect the profit of the company, such as the cost of purchasing heating oil, the long-term prospection, as well as the fierce market competition.

In a nutshell, the author's evidence accomplishes little toward supporting his argument. To persuade me that the demand for heating oil will increase and it is necessary to invest in the CI company, the author would need to provide clear evidence that new inhabitants moving to the new houses will continue using heating oil, and that none of other factors affect the company's profits. Finally, to better evaluate the author's claim we would need more information about how long did below-average temperatures last in the past and what's the specific temperatures during the 90 days, as well as whether the prediction is based on reliable research by the university.

Writing Feedback / my GRE argument of "Jazz club loan, city of Monroe"--feedback [NEW]

This is the first article of GRE argument written by myself, I'm quite at a loss how to develop and revise it, hope for help~~

Here is my article:

The author of this argument predicts that the C Note in Monroe cannot help but make money. (cl) To support this prediction the author points out that the nearest jazz club is over 60 miles away from Monroe. The author also provides anecdotal evidence involving the number of people attending Monroe's jazz festival last summer, several well-known jazz musicians living there, as well as the highest-rated radio program "Jazz Nightly". Finally, the author cites a nationwide study indicating the cost spent by jazz fans on jazz entertainment. Close scrutiny of this evidence reveals that it lends little credible support for the author's prediction.

First, the author unfairly assumes that it is the convenient transportation of the C Note that resulted in owning the whole local market. But we can find no concrete evidence to substantiate the inevitable relationship between the location and the market obtained by the club. Even if it is convenient for people to get there, there are many other factors which could also lead to the result, such as the cost of joining the club as well as the quality of service. In short, the author could not hastily conclude that location is the only possible reason for their success in attracting customers before taking above factors into account.

Second, the author also holds on his prediction by assuming that many famous jazz musicians living there can bring the C Note about large numbers of jazz fans. However, the author overlooks the probability of personal preference of the musicians. Perhaps they choose to live there just because of the pleasant scenery and comfortable environment. Or perhaps they really don't want to be disturbed by their fans during their daily life.

Third, the fact that the typical jazz fan spends close to $1,000 per year on jazz entertainment could insufficiently substantiate the conclusion that the club would be a tremendously profitable enterprise since the argument is based only on a nationwide study and the author does not provides how much does it cost to join the jazz club in Monroe. The situation in that city may have been totally different. Moreover, people possibly spend their money just on pursuing jazz instruments or souvenirs(纪念品) rather than signing up for the club. Unless the author can demonstrate that many people in Monroe spend money on joining the C Note, the conclusion cannot be reached merely basing on the general cases.

In a nutshell, the author's evidence accomplishes little toward supporting his argument for the C Note making money. To further bolster the argument the author must provide better evidence, perhaps by way of a reliable study conducted in Monroe on how much people spend on the club. Finally, to better evaluate the author's prediction we would need more information about the price of being a club member as well as the quality of the club, and the reason why so many well-known jazz musicians live in that city.

3Q for giving me a hand~