Writing Feedback / GRE- Argument on letter by Central Plaza store owners; Hidden factors [3]

hi, by mistake i have posted this essay in undergraduate. it under comes graduate essay.

The following appeared as a letter to the editor from a Central Plaza store owner.

"Over the past two years, the number of shoppers in Central Plaza has been steadily decreasing while the popularity of skateboarding has increased dramatically. Many Central Plaza store owners believe that the decrease in their business is due to the number of skateboard users in the plaza. There has also been a dramatic increase in the amount of litter and vandalism throughout the plaza. Thus, we recommend that the city prohibit skateboarding in Central Plaza. If skateboarding is prohibited here, we predict that business in Central Plaza will return to its previously high levels."

While it may be true that the number of shopper in Central Plaza has been decreasing since last two years, this author's argument does not make cogent case for prohibiting skateboarding would resume the number of shoppers at Central Plaza. According to the author, banned on skateboarding would increase the sales at central plaza. While the correlations are logical and probable, there may be hidden factors that are responsible for decreased number of shoppers.

The author's first mistake is to assume that he/she knows why the number of shopper is decrease. She claims that the popularity of skateboarding amongst the shopper is the reason why shoppers are less attracted towards stores. This is the classical case of confusing correlation with causation. While people are more inclined towards the skateboarding, it does not follow that it is responsible for decreased sales. It may be because of insufficient or devoid stock for consumer or may be because the Central Plaza lack latest facilities offered by other stores. Perhaps they are inclined towards the skateboarding is entirely different. Skateboarding is all about people's interest in recreational activity. Skateboarding may also be popular because of its concern with body fitness.

The author also claims that dramatic increase in skateboarding has tremendously increased litter and vandalism and reason why the sales have been decreased which is similarly unsubstantiated. The thought that vandalism and litter has decreased the number of shopper, it must also decrease the skateboarding. If the atmosphere is the cause of decrease the popularity of Plaza it must have same effect on the popularity of skateboarding. In this case the author's assumption should be on survey based so that the author would get to know the foremost existing reason.

Based on assumptions, the author makes bold proposal that to return the previous sales statistics, the skateboarding should be banned. Though this proposal is intend to maintain the positive attribute that to resume the popularity of plaza, it may be fail to achieve the goal because the skateboarding may not be the reason. Despite it is possible that other reason mentioned above could be the cause.

Despite the flaws in this author's argument, he/she may be correct why the number of shoppers has been decreased. He could strengthen his argument by documenting its most important premises with data. For example, he provided that the decrease in number of shoppers is because of skateboarding, litter and vandalism. Yet, without any supporting details such as survey. If the survey supports the claim, his argument would be far more persuasive. Were this the case his argument might be justified.

Writing Feedback / GRE-ARGUMENT- Prunty County should undertake the same kind of road improvement [2]

In an attempt to improve highway safety, Prunty County last year lowered its speed limit from 55 to 45 miles per hour on all county highways. But this effort has failed: the number of accidents has not decreased, and, based on reports by the highway patrol, many drivers are exceeding the speed limit. Prunty County should instead undertake the same kind of road improvement project that Butler County completed five years ago: increasing lane widths, resurfacing rough highways, and improving visibility at dangerous intersections. Today, major Butler County roads still have a 55 mph speed limit, yet there were 25 percent fewer reported accidents in Butler County this past year than there were five years ago.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument

While it is true that highway safety must be improved at Prunty County as there is high accident rate, this author's argument does not make a cogent case for emulating Prunty County with Bulter County. According to the author, to improve safety at Prunty County they should undertake the project which has already completed by Bulter County. While the correlations could be logical and probable, there may be hidden factors that are responsible for no improvement in highway safety.

The author's first mistake is to assume that the speed limit is the cause of most of the accident. He claims that even though speed limit has been decreased at the Prunty County there is no significant change in accident rate. This is the classical case of confusing correlation with causion. It could be because of irresponsibility of driver or the reflection of headlight at night time which cause the vague vision. Another reason such as drivers are distracted because of one or the other reason. Perhaps limiting the speed has made no remarkable change in accident rate.

Based on the report by highway petrol author also claims that many driver are exceeding the speed limits. It is not clear however, the scope and validity of survey. Does this report is accurate? The data might have provided based on small spectrum intern it could not represent the overall scenario at Prunty County. If the report by highway petrol is based on CCTV camera or 24.7 observations, it may have provided the real picture at Prunty County. We just do not know unless the survey is fully representative, valid and reliable, it can not be used to effective back the author's argument.

Moreover, the author implies that to improve the safety at Prunty County they should emulate with Bulter County as there is less accident rate. This implement is unsubstantiated. Yes, the accident rates at Bulter County has been decreased in last five years but the author have provided no precise evidence that this remarkable decreased rates is because of the project in which they have raised the lane widths, resurfaced rough highway and improved visibility. The decrease in rate of accident could be because of decreased traffic ratio or many people refuse to drive through Bulter County. Regardless whether the accident rate is decrease because of improvement in quality of road or the other reason, the author does not effectively show the connection between the decreased accident rate and renovation of the roads.

Examining all the various angles and factors cited by the author, the argument does not justify that to improve safety at Prunty County it should undertake the project which already completed by Bulter County . while the proposal does not highlight a possibility, more information is require to warrant any action.