'The Arctic deer populations are declining' - GRE analytical argument

Hi all,

I will be taking my GRE exam in a week. Am bit worried about analytical writing section. This is my 1st attempt to a topic from pool on ETS site. Please

evaluate it and help me out.

Thanks and regards
Divyendu

Topic:

Arctic deer live on islands in Canada's arctic regions. They search for food by moving over ice from island to island
during the course of the year. Their habitat is limited to areas warm enough to sustain the plants on which they feed
and cold enough, at least some of the year, for the ice to cover the sea separating the islands, allowing the deer to
travel over it. Unfortunately, according to reports from local hunters, the deer populations are declining. Since these
reports coincide with recent global warming trends that have caused the sea ice to melt, we can conclude that the
purported decline in deer populations is the result of the deer's being unable to follow their age-old migration
patterns across the frozen sea.

Write a response in which you discuss what specific evidence is needed to evaluate the argument and explain how the
evidence would weaken or strengthen the argument.

MY response:

In the provided argument the author has drawn a very quick conclusion just based on the fact that the drop in deer population
coincides with the increasing trend of global worming. There is no solid evidence provided by the author except a proposed the0ry of deers not able to cross the island,

that can establish any relation between drop in deer population and global worming.

To ensure that the drop in deer population is directly influenced by global warming it is required to prove that there is no other factor which can affect the population.

First of all the conclusion based on the reports claiming the drop in deep population from the local hunters itself may be erroneous.It may be possible that to protect

themselves from hunters, deers may have migrated to some of other locations where hunters generally don't prefer to hunt. To mitigate this doubt we need to properly

establish the actual present population of deer and compare it to the past data available.

As far now even if we consider that the deer population is dropping, still we cannot pinpoint global warming as the culprit. There are many other factors which may be responsible or the drop in population.One such factor may be decrease in vegetation on which the deers survive. The decrease in the vegetation may be due to any disease spreading the plants or may be due to human activities like cleaning a area for own use. This decrease in the vegetation may lead the deer population to strive. To eliminate this doubt we need to compare the vegetation trend in the past and present.

There are pretty chances that some kind of epidemic is spread in the deer population which has caused a drop in population. This factor is also to be examined by having a

look at any available data showing number deaths in deer due to any disease.

Above all human intervention has significant effect on all the ecosystems. The rate of hunting activities and the encroachment of human population in the natural habitat

of deer also needs to be evaluated. May be the deer population is not able to coup-up with the increased hunting activities in the area.

Hear we also need to confirm authors' theory based on sea ice melting. It is required to ensure that there is significant decrease in the thickness of ice surrounding the islands in which these deer habitat. If we can confirm that the thickness of ice in the area has dropped enough and is not able to support the migration of deer from one island to other then only authors' theory gets some support.

Any study ensuring no significant affect of the factors stated above on deer population will increase the confidence in authors' conclusion. But prior to conducting any such

study it will be early to put a blame on global worming.

"The decrease in the vegetation may be due to any disease spreading the plants or may be due to human activities like cleaning a area for own use"=> If the sea ice melts, there should be more vegetation on the islands. Further, there are no people on the islands on the arctic sea, only some scattered research stations (very small) and military bases (a couple of bases spread on billions of squared miles).

from the answer:
"Because I imagine that (for example) for trees to carry on a disease, certain environment factors must change." => there are no trees and not even big bushes.

A nice essay!
Wish you to get full credit!