The following appeared in the editorial section of a local newspaper:
"In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better its conclusion.
This argument relies on a series of unproven assumptions, which together undermine its conclusion that the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro. One such assumption is that in first four years Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased, the number of businesses has decreased. The other assumption is that in past Varro's four year term, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Thus, I would need to know whether more effects are in fact Montoya's term office and in Varro's before I could either accept or reject to vote Montoya out of office and reelect Varro.
Even assuming that Montoya is not successful in the first four year term as mayor of city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. However, the trend of population and unemployment is a result of long term process, it might not relate to Montoya's policy in only year of his term. Moreover, I would like to know about birth rate and death rate to conclude whether population has decreased is harmful for the city of San Perdito or not. This assumption also mentions that two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. It is hard to evaluate whether it is harmful for the city of San Perdito. It only mentions about the quantity of business but not about scale of business, each business has opened might be worthier than two businesses have closed. Therefore, it might not convince residents of San Perdito vote Montoya out of office.
Besides the assumption about the shortcomings of Montoya in his term, other assumption about the success of Varro in his term office. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the employment rate decreased and the population increased. However, this assumption did not mention the economical and societal situation of the city of San Perdito before Varro became mayor of the city. Meanwhile, there had not any statistics about the employment rate and the population in the first four years under Varro term, it might not be enough evidence to prove that Varro is more successful in mayor role than Montoya. There still have 3 years for Montoya to get results that Varro did in his term office. Thus, with assumption about the success of Varro might not convince residents vote to reelect Varro.
In sum, the argument is a dubious on that relies on a series of unproven assumptions - about shortcomings of Montoya in first four year term and about the success of Varro in the past. To strengthen the argument, the article should provide better evidence of statistics about birth rate, death rate to deeply understand about the population changes and statistics about the population and the unemployment rate in first four year term of Varro. Even with this additional evidence, with Varro as mayor of the city of San Perdito might not get better result than Montoya did. It's rather clear that this article is weak and unconvincing to residents of the city of San Perdito to vote Montoya out of office and reelected Varro
"In the first four years that Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. Two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Clearly, the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro."
Discuss how well reasoned you find this argument. In your discussion be sure to analyze the line of reasoning and the use of evidence in the argument. For example, you may need to consider what questionable assumptions underlie the thinking and what alternative explanations or counterexamples might weaken the conclusion. You can also discuss what sort of evidence would strengthen or refute the argument, what changes in the argument would make it more logically sound, and what, if anything, would help you better its conclusion.
This argument relies on a series of unproven assumptions, which together undermine its conclusion that the residents of San Perdito would be best served if they voted Montoya out of office and reelected Varro. One such assumption is that in first four years Montoya has served as mayor of the city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased, the number of businesses has decreased. The other assumption is that in past Varro's four year term, the unemployment rate decreased and the population increased. Thus, I would need to know whether more effects are in fact Montoya's term office and in Varro's before I could either accept or reject to vote Montoya out of office and reelect Varro.
Even assuming that Montoya is not successful in the first four year term as mayor of city of San Perdito, the population has decreased and the unemployment rate has increased. However, the trend of population and unemployment is a result of long term process, it might not relate to Montoya's policy in only year of his term. Moreover, I would like to know about birth rate and death rate to conclude whether population has decreased is harmful for the city of San Perdito or not. This assumption also mentions that two businesses have closed for each new business that has opened. It is hard to evaluate whether it is harmful for the city of San Perdito. It only mentions about the quantity of business but not about scale of business, each business has opened might be worthier than two businesses have closed. Therefore, it might not convince residents of San Perdito vote Montoya out of office.
Besides the assumption about the shortcomings of Montoya in his term, other assumption about the success of Varro in his term office. Under Varro, who served as mayor for four years before Montoya, the employment rate decreased and the population increased. However, this assumption did not mention the economical and societal situation of the city of San Perdito before Varro became mayor of the city. Meanwhile, there had not any statistics about the employment rate and the population in the first four years under Varro term, it might not be enough evidence to prove that Varro is more successful in mayor role than Montoya. There still have 3 years for Montoya to get results that Varro did in his term office. Thus, with assumption about the success of Varro might not convince residents vote to reelect Varro.
In sum, the argument is a dubious on that relies on a series of unproven assumptions - about shortcomings of Montoya in first four year term and about the success of Varro in the past. To strengthen the argument, the article should provide better evidence of statistics about birth rate, death rate to deeply understand about the population changes and statistics about the population and the unemployment rate in first four year term of Varro. Even with this additional evidence, with Varro as mayor of the city of San Perdito might not get better result than Montoya did. It's rather clear that this article is weak and unconvincing to residents of the city of San Perdito to vote Montoya out of office and reelected Varro