Do you think my refutation is strong enough?
What about my language skills?
Please give me some advice, thanks~~~~^_^
The argument contains several logical defects, which renders the conclusion that " the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months." unconvincing. The author makes a questionable survey and makes an incorrect inference according to the fact. Also, he/she fails to consider possible reasons for the decline in sales. As a result, the argument would not predict the situation correctly.
First of all, the author does not provide any detailed information about this survey to prove that the results are statistically reliable. We do not know the background of respondents, such as their ages, the total number of respondents, the field of the survey, or whether they have ever bought goods produced by companies similar to W. Therefore, we have every reason to believe that the sample of the survey is too small to represent the overall players' opinions. Or perhaps this sample is not a random sample. Random sampling is very important because it is entirely possible that the survey's respondents are all more than 30 years old so that they have totally different preferences about the games. For the above reasons, the author cannot confidently draw the conclusion that players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers.
Even if assuming that the results of the survey are reliable, the fact that Whirlwind has just introduces several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed to people 10-25 years old does not necessarily indicate that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically. Perhaps although W provides lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers, they do not satisfy the players in other respects, such as the music effects or the plot design. Alternatively, perhaps players want to play these games but they are too expensive for the players to afford, or their parents do not want them play video games. Or perhaps they are more inclined to listen to the views of others, if other players respond well to these games, they will buy them, and this can pose negative effects on short-term sales since they might buy them next year. Any of these scenarios, if true, would cast considerable doubt on the author's prediction.
Thirdly, the author does not go into details about the reasons for the decline in sales, May be a global economic recession led to such results and all the companies in this field are facing such a situation. It is entirely that if the economic circumstances were not improved in the future, all their efforts would in vain. Since the author does not rule out this possibility, it is insensible to rush to such a conclusion.
In sum, the author wants to make a prediction about the future sales whereas his deduction contains several facets that are questionable. However, if the author can provide a more convincing study to investigate the players' preference, at the same time, doing a more in-depth investigation of factors which can effect the products sales, the prediction would be relatively strengthened.
What about my language skills?
Please give me some advice, thanks~~~~^_^
Sales Predictions and Projections
The argument contains several logical defects, which renders the conclusion that " the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically in the next few months." unconvincing. The author makes a questionable survey and makes an incorrect inference according to the fact. Also, he/she fails to consider possible reasons for the decline in sales. As a result, the argument would not predict the situation correctly.
First of all, the author does not provide any detailed information about this survey to prove that the results are statistically reliable. We do not know the background of respondents, such as their ages, the total number of respondents, the field of the survey, or whether they have ever bought goods produced by companies similar to W. Therefore, we have every reason to believe that the sample of the survey is too small to represent the overall players' opinions. Or perhaps this sample is not a random sample. Random sampling is very important because it is entirely possible that the survey's respondents are all more than 30 years old so that they have totally different preferences about the games. For the above reasons, the author cannot confidently draw the conclusion that players prefer games that provide lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers.
Even if assuming that the results of the survey are reliable, the fact that Whirlwind has just introduces several such games with an extensive advertising campaign directed to people 10-25 years old does not necessarily indicate that the sales of Whirlwind video games are likely to increase dramatically. Perhaps although W provides lifelike graphics, which require the most up-to-date computers, they do not satisfy the players in other respects, such as the music effects or the plot design. Alternatively, perhaps players want to play these games but they are too expensive for the players to afford, or their parents do not want them play video games. Or perhaps they are more inclined to listen to the views of others, if other players respond well to these games, they will buy them, and this can pose negative effects on short-term sales since they might buy them next year. Any of these scenarios, if true, would cast considerable doubt on the author's prediction.
Thirdly, the author does not go into details about the reasons for the decline in sales, May be a global economic recession led to such results and all the companies in this field are facing such a situation. It is entirely that if the economic circumstances were not improved in the future, all their efforts would in vain. Since the author does not rule out this possibility, it is insensible to rush to such a conclusion.
In sum, the author wants to make a prediction about the future sales whereas his deduction contains several facets that are questionable. However, if the author can provide a more convincing study to investigate the players' preference, at the same time, doing a more in-depth investigation of factors which can effect the products sales, the prediction would be relatively strengthened.